The conclave of cardinals will meets beneath the Michelangelo frescoes of the Sistine Chapel next Monday afternoon. An Italian cardinal whose diocese is the biggest in Italy, and the son of a Cuban factory worker are favourites to replace John Paul II as pope. Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi of Milan is tipped as most likely to be installed in the Vatican after 25 years of a non-Italian pope. And Cardinal Jaime Ortega y Alamino of Cuba is second favourite. He would become the first pope from Latin America, home to 500 million Catholics.

If the cardinals decide on a non-Italian, the field is wide open. Africa, where the Church is facing competition from Islam and other religions, has a strong candidate in Nigeria's Cardinal Francis Arinze, 72. (picture).

There are four other possible candidates from Latin America – archbishops Dario Castrillon Hoyos, 75, head of the Congregation for the Clergy; Oscar Andres Rodrigues Maradiaga, 62, of Tegucigalpa; Jorge Mario Bergoglio, 68, of Buenos Aires; Claudio Hummes, 70, of Sao Paulo. Cardinals from all over the world, are ready to gather in the Sistine Chapel for the election.

There are 117 cardinals under 80 and, therefore, eligible to vote, 2 of them are sick, so they might not go for these elections. Of these almost 100 have been appointed by John Paul II. The next pontiff is almost certain to come from among the cardinals, although the prelates could in theory elect any baptised male.

Pope Gregory XVI in 1831 was a priest and Cardinal Alfonso Borgia was a layman before becoming Pope Callistus III in 1455. Until the election of John Paul II, it used to be reasonably safe to predict that the next pope would be Italian. But a split in the Italian camp in 1978, accompanied by a last-minute push by a group of conservatives, brought about what was then considered a revolution, the election of a Polish pope. He was the first non-Italian to head the Holy See in 455 years.

If the cardinals are reasonably unanimous about the policies they want the Church to follow, they are likely to elect a young man to carry out these policies into the future. If they cannot agree on policies, they are more likely to choose an elderly candidate as a temporary measure.

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